Recent US inflation data for May showed unexpectedly mild signs, providing a positive signal for risk assets. The unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate came in at 2.4%, lower than the market’s general expectation of 2.5%. The monthly rate was just 0.1%, also below the expected 0.2%.
Core inflation data, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, showed a similar slowing trend. The annual core CPI rate was 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%, while the seasonally adjusted monthly core CPI was only 0.1%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 0.3%.
Following the report, the cryptocurrency market initially rose but then turned lower. Bitcoin briefly approached $110,000 during the day, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 3% to $2,834, and XRP increased by 1.8% to $2.32. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies remained near $3.4 trillion over the past 24 hours. According to CoinGlass data, at the time of writing, total liquidations reached $300 million in 24 hours, with Ethereum liquidations at approximately $100 million and Bitcoin at around $37 million.
Increased Whale Activity
As Bitcoin first rose and then fell, increased whale activity was also observed in on-chain data.
On-chain tracking platform Whale Alert detected significant Bitcoin inflows into the US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase on June 11. According to data provided by the tracking platform, within just about two hours, multiple anonymous whales transferred over 3,165 Bitcoin (worth more than $347 million) to Coinbase through several transactions.
The largest single transaction involved 738 BTC, with several other large transfers from anonymous wallets (such as 466 BTC, 464 BTC, 463 BTC, etc.).
Notably, 510 BTC (worth approximately $56.1 million) were transferred from the well-known crypto trading firm Cumberland to Coinbase Institutional. This often indicates that whales may be attempting to sell their tokens, although the specific reasons for these transfers have not been confirmed. It could also be an attempt by whales to rebalance their portfolios. However, given the large volume, repetitive nature, and involvement of entities like Cumberland, this activity likely represents moves by large participants, particularly institutions.
Possibly influenced by this whale activity, Bitcoin fell below the $110,000 mark it had reached at the day’s opening, stabilizing around $108,677 at the time of writing.
Market Trends and Technical Perspective
Data shows that the current funding rate in the Bitcoin futures market is very stable or relatively low.
This typically indicates that the current rebound is driven by investors actually purchasing spot assets, rather than being fueled by highly leveraged futures trading. When high-leverage positions are not dominant in the market, the risk of triggering large-scale sell-offs and sharp declines is lower, increasing the likelihood that the price will continue to rise.
From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin opened with a gap up of about 1% yesterday, trading near $110,375. After opening, BTC fluctuated around this price for about 180 minutes before beginning a slow descent, touching an intraday low of around $108,720 at approximately 11:33. Around 2:02 PM, BTC quickly rallied, eventually closing near $110,455. The day formed a bullish doji candle with a relatively long lower shadow, recording a gain of about 1.02%.
Monitoring through daily trading channel models shows that Bitcoin is currently trading above the red-green protection channel, indicating that the medium-term trend remains relatively strong. Sentiment indicators have also slowly recovered along with the rise in price, suggesting that market confidence is gradually restoring.
From the 1-hour candlestick chart, trading model monitoring shows that the short-term price is above the white bull-bear line, with sentiment indicators in the high zone, potentially forming a top divergence pattern. This means that the probability of increased market volatility in the short term is relatively high, and there may be a pullback toward the intraday low of $108,720. It will be crucial to observe whether this low point is broken.
Based on 1-hour candlestick data analysis, multiple indicators are in the high zone, increasing the likelihood of intraday fluctuations. Key attention should be paid to whether the $108,720 level is breached. Daily candlestick analysis shows BTC trading above the red-green protection channel; from a medium-term perspective, long positions can continue to be held.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the US CPI data indicate for cryptocurrency markets?
The US CPI data reflects inflation trends. Lower-than-expected inflation often leads to increased investor confidence in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as it may suggest a more favorable economic environment for growth-oriented investments.
How do whale movements impact Bitcoin’s price?
Large transfers by whales, especially to exchanges, can signal potential selling pressure. This activity often leads to short-term price volatility as markets react to the possibility of large sell orders being executed.
What technical indicators are important for Bitcoin analysis?
Key indicators include price levels relative to trading channels, funding rates, sentiment indicators, and candlestick patterns. These help traders assess market trends, potential support/resistance levels, and overall market sentiment.
Why is the funding rate significant in crypto markets?
The funding rate in perpetual futures markets indicates whether traders are leaning bullish or bearish. A stable or low rate suggests healthier market conditions with less leverage, reducing the risk of cascading liquidations.
How can traders monitor whale activity?
Platforms like Whale Alert provide real-time tracking of large cryptocurrency transactions. Monitoring these movements can offer insights into potential market shifts caused by large holders.
What strategies can help manage risk during high volatility?
Diversification, position sizing, and setting stop-loss orders can help manage risk. Additionally, staying informed about market news and technical indicators provides valuable context for decision-making. For those looking to stay updated on market movements, you can check real-time market analysis and monitoring tools.
Understanding these dynamics helps investors navigate cryptocurrency markets more effectively. Whether you're tracking whale activity or analyzing technical patterns, comprehensive market awareness supports better investment decisions. To explore advanced trading strategies and tools, consider platforms that offer detailed market insights.