With less than three days remaining until the Bitcoin halving, global investment management firm AllianceBernstein (AB) has released a bullish outlook for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra reaffirmed their $150,000 price target in a recent client report.
They project that Bitcoin's upward trajectory will resume after the halving, particularly once the mining hash rate undergoes necessary adjustments and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs—which have been negative or flat over the past ten days—return to positive territory.
This perspective aligns with comments from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who suggested last month that the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs on major brokerage platforms in the coming months could serve as a major catalyst. Such approvals would significantly enhance product visibility and accessibility, potentially driving a new wave of Bitcoin adoption.
How the Halving Influences Bitcoin’s Price
Historically, Bitcoin halving events have correlated strongly with major price movements. Although not a direct cause-and-effect relationship, these events often precede substantial bull markets.
According to Bernstein’s analysis, the halving mechanism itself does not directly cause Bitcoin’s price to appreciate. What truly matters is the emergence of new demand. While miners will receive fewer Bitcoin rewards post-halving and are therefore likely to sell less, the overall impact of miner selling on the market has diminished considerably over time.
The report illustrates:
“For example, at today’s prices, miners generate approximately $50 million worth of Bitcoin per day. This represents just 0.12% of Bitcoin’s daily trading volume. As a result, the argument that reduced selling pressure leads to price appreciation is no longer very persuasive.”
The analysts further note that demand catalysts tend to emerge following halving events. The 2020/21 cycle, for instance, was fueled by post-pandemic liquidity and corporate acquisitions from companies like Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy. This cycle, however, is expected to be driven by the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and participation from major global asset managers.
👉 Discover more market analysis and insights
Impact on Bitcoin Miners
Amid concerns about reduced mining revenues, many mining stocks have declined by 15–20% over the past 30 days. Year-to-date, no major publicly traded mining company has outperformed Bitcoin itself. That said, some miners continue to operate at all-time highs in USD revenue, strengthening their balance sheets and maintaining relatively low debt levels ahead of the halving.
Bernstein estimates that the hash rate will decline by approximately 7% after the halving, with the remaining hash power concentrated among four major mining companies: CleanSpark, Marathon, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining.
The analysts also caution that a significant drop in Bitcoin’s price—for example, to $40,000 or lower—could trigger a more severe reduction in network hash rate. However, they consider this scenario unlikely, given what they describe as “unleashed structural demand” from ETFs. So far this year, ETFs have seen $12 billion in net inflows, with projections suggesting up to $80 billion may enter through 2024 and 2025.
The report reiterates confidence in leading public miners, anticipating that their stock performance may outperform Bitcoin over the next 12 months. This is based on expectations of increased market share, strong revenues, and expanded production capacity.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin halving?
The Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs every 210,000 blocks—approximately every four years—which cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half. This reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is created and controls inflation.
Why do analysts link halvings to price increases?
While not guaranteed, halvings have historically been followed by bull markets. The reduction in new supply, combined with increasing demand, often creates upward price pressure. However, macroeconomic factors and market sentiment also play crucial roles.
How do Bitcoin ETFs affect the market?
Bitcoin ETFs make it easier for institutional and individual investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding it. This can significantly increase demand, especially as more brokerages and financial platforms offer these products.
What happens to miners after the halving?
Miners face reduced block rewards, which can pressure profitability. Efficient miners with low energy costs and strong balance sheets are better positioned to adapt. Industry consolidation is also common post-halving.
Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin?
Investment decisions should be based on personal research, risk tolerance, and financial goals. While some analysts are bullish, cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. It’s important to consider both opportunities and risks.
Could the price really reach $150,000?
Price predictions are speculative. Bernstein’s $150,000 target is based on current demand trends, institutional interest, and historical patterns. However, market conditions can change rapidly, so such forecasts should be viewed as projections, not certainties.