Bitcoin’s price experienced a modest rebound on Tuesday, trading above $80,000 after declining nearly 3% the previous day. The recovery follows a period of institutional softness, with U.S. spot ETFs recording outflows of $278.4 million on Monday. Market participants are closely watching upcoming U.S. macroeconomic releases—Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI)—which could heighten volatility across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Recovers After Testing $76,606 Low
The price of Bitcoin dipped to $76,606 during Tuesday's Asian trading session but staged a recovery, climbing back above $80,000 in early European trading. This rebound came after a nearly 3% drop the day before, which triggered significant liquidations across the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $955.71 million, with Bitcoin accounting for $318.13 million of that sum. The single largest liquidation order occurred on Binance’s BTCUSDT pair, valued at $5.26 million.
In an exclusive discussion, Agne Linge, Growth Lead at WeFi, noted that despite notable developments, the crypto market continues to exhibit risk-averse behavior with investors remaining cautious. Linge pointed out that since March 3rd, selling pressure has persisted even after the U.S. government’s Bitcoin reserve announcement. Market data confirms millions lost through liquidations over recent days, primarily affecting long-position traders amid declining open interest.
Linge also highlighted that factors contributing to the earlier crypto market downturn remain relevant. Ongoing trade tensions involving the U.S., China, Mexico, and Canada continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Escalating tariffs are expected to fuel inflationary pressures, raising the likelihood of broader macroeconomic repercussions in the coming weeks. These trends have already impacted markets, and a short-term rebound may depend on unforeseen triggers.
Upcoming Macro Data Could Increase BTC Volatility
A recent Bitfinex report emphasized that current macroeconomic conditions do not point to a clear directional bias. U.S. employment, productivity, and manufacturing data present a mixed picture: steady job growth, rising wages, and improved efficiency are counterbalanced by inflationary pressures, trade disruptions, and hesitant business expansion.
The report further elaborated that the U.S. job market remains robust, with 151,000 positions added in February, though the unemployment rate climbed to 4.1% due to government layoffs. Wage growth stays strong, but increasing labor costs and inflation could challenge expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
Eren Sengezer, Chief Analyst for the European Session at FXStreet, noted that concerns over a U.S. economic slowdown and its potential global impact triggered a sell-off in major equity indices at the start of the week. He added that on Tuesday, market attention would turn to the NFIB Business Optimism Index for February and JOLTS Job Openings for January, alongside political headlines and equity market movements.
The imminent release of U.S. inflation data—CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday—is anticipated to inject further volatility into risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.
Institutional Demand for Bitcoin Shows Signs of Weakness
Institutional interest in Bitcoin softened at the beginning of the week. Data from Coinglass indicates Bitcoin spot ETFs saw outflows of $278.4 million on Monday, following a net outflow of $739.2 million over the prior week. Should outflows persist or intensify, Bitcoin may face additional downward pressure.
In other significant developments, Lookonchain reported that the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox moved an additional 11,833.6 Bitcoin (worth over $932 million) on Tuesday. This follows a transfer of 12,000 Bitcoin (valued above $1 billion) the previous week. In the latest movement, 11,501.58 BTC ($905.06 million) was sent to a new wallet, while 332 BTC ($26.13 million) was moved to a hot wallet.
Traders should remain vigilant, as transfers of this magnitude often signal an intent to sell or distribute assets. Such movements can foster bearish sentiment as market participants anticipate increased supply.
Nevertheless, some positive developments offer counterpoints. Spanish banking group BBVA received approval to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading services, and MicroStrategy raised $2.1 billion through its 8.00% Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock offering, indicating sustained corporate interest.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: RSI Bounces from Oversold Territory
Bitcoin’s price broke below and closed under the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85,754 on Sunday, declining 8.80% on Monday. During Tuesday’s Asian session, it touched a low of $76,606 before recovering above $80,000 in early European trading.
If the downtrend continues and Bitcoin closes below $78,258—the low from February 28—it could extend losses toward the next support level at $73,072.
The Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 36 rebounded from 30 on Monday, suggesting weakening bearish momentum and a potential shift from oversold conditions. However, for a sustained recovery, the RSI would need to climb above its neutral level of 50.
Should bullish momentum strengthen, Bitcoin may attempt a rebound toward $85,000.
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused Bitcoin’s recent price drop?
Bitcoin’s price decline was driven by significant outflows from U.S. spot ETFs, large-scale transfers from historical wallets like Mt. Gox, and broader macroeconomic uncertainties linked to trade tensions and inflation concerns.
How do U.S. CPI and PPI data affect Bitcoin’s price?
These inflation indicators influence market expectations about Federal Reserve monetary policy. Higher-than-expected readings may reduce hopes for interest rate cuts, strengthening the U.S. dollar and potentially pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin.
What does RSI indicate for Bitcoin’s short-term trend?
The RSI’s rebound from oversold levels suggests selling pressure may be easing. However, a sustained recovery would require the RSI to move above 50, indicating renewed bullish momentum.
Are institutional investors still buying Bitcoin?
Recent ETF outflow data suggests short-term institutional caution. However, approvals for new service offerings—like BBVA’s crypto trading—and corporate fundraising activities indicate continued institutional engagement.
What are major resistance levels for Bitcoin?
Key resistance lies near the 200-day EMA around $85,754. A break above this level could open the path toward higher price targets, depending on market sentiment and institutional flows.
Should traders be concerned about large Bitcoin movements?
Large transfers, especially from entities like Mt. Gox, often create selling anticipation. Monitoring wallet activity and exchange inflows can provide clues about potential market moves.
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