Today marks May 19th, a date many in the crypto community remember well. On May 19, 2021, the cryptocurrency market experienced a dramatic crash. Bitcoin's price plummeted from around $44,000 to $29,000 in a single day—a drop of over 34%. Ethereum was cut in half, and other altcoins like Dogecoin also saw significant declines. This led to massive liquidations and widespread panic among investors.
Yesterday, on May 18th, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $107,000, coming very close to its all-time high. Perhaps due to the lingering shadows of the past "519" event, Bitcoin underwent a slight correction today. As of this writing, it is trading near $102,500.
Coincidentally, yesterday a reader asked: "Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 this year?"
My response was: "It’s not impossible, but you should also consider your own cost basis and goals. If your risk exposure isn’t too high and you have cash flow (stablecoin) needs, then starting around $100,000 might be a good time to consider taking profits gradually. Of course, if you’re in it for the long haul, then it doesn’t matter as much—even if $150,000 isn’t reached this cycle, it likely will be in the next."
The reader followed up: "My average Bitcoin cost is around $60,000. I’m thinking of selling half when it hits $120,000 this year to double my initial investment, then slowly dollar-cost average back in during the bear market. What do you think?"
I asked: "Do you have a Plan B? What if it doesn’t reach $120,000 this year? Will that affect your future investment plans?"
The reader replied: "No Plan B. My main concern is not having enough funds to buy the dip later."
I said: "If your priority is to ensure you have enough capital to buy during market downturns, then consider starting to sell gradually around current levels—near $100,000—instead of taking on uncertain risks by remaining fully invested. Unless you’re comfortable with the possibility of not having enough dry powder during the next bear market."
Analyzing Market Trends Using Data and Indicators
In a previous article (dated May 14), we discussed several metrics useful for evaluating long-term and medium-term price trends. By analyzing data across different dimensions, investors can make more rational decisions and reduce emotionally driven mistakes.
After that article was published, a few readers asked: "Do I need to learn all these indicators?"
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer. Whether you need to understand these indicators—and which ones—is entirely up to you. We simply shared some of the metrics we find useful. As noted in the earlier piece, different investment horizons and risk appetites call for different styles of investing, and each style may rely on a unique set of data points or indicators.
Take Open Interest (OI) data, for example. It’s one of the more helpful short-to-medium-term metrics because it can offer clues about what large players (including institutional investors) might do next. Consider the chart below (source: alphractal).
The 30-day cumulative Open Interest Delta (which reflects the overall sensitivity of all open option contracts to changes in the underlying asset’s price) has recently returned to levels seen in early 2024, when Bitcoin reached its previous all-time high of $73,000.
If historical patterns hold, we are currently in a strong growth phase (positive Delta), but this may soon be followed by a corrective phase (negative Delta), forming a cyclical pattern.
Now, let’s zoom out and look at the 180-day cumulative Open Interest Delta (also from alphractal).
This longer-term view reveals something interesting: we are currently experiencing a new downward "curve," which often indicates that over-leveraged positions are being liquidated en masse. In plain terms, highly leveraged traders are being forced to close positions due to market volatility. If the Delta turns negative again, the market could enter a new accumulation zone or even retest recent lows.
In summary:
Based on recent 30-day OI data, the upward trend may continue for another month or two. However, looking further out—say, starting in Q3—we might see a correction or consolidation phase. After that, another rally could emerge toward the end of the year.
This aligns with two popular narratives circulating online:
- Some believe Q2 will bring new opportunities, with Bitcoin potentially reaching or surpassing its previous all-time high. Current price action seems to support this.
- Others argue that the real breakout will happen near the end of the year.
Will Bitcoin break its all-time high in the next month or two? Will it reach $150,000 by December? No one knows for sure. We don’t give trading advice. Instead, we encourage you to use reliable indicators for context, then make decisions that align with your risk tolerance and investment goals.
Combining Data with Fundamentals and Macroeconomics
There are dozens of on-chain metrics—our Bitcoin Indicator Dashboard alone tracks over 35. While these are useful, especially for short-term analysis, they are ultimately backward-looking. To make more informed judgments, you should also consider project fundamentals and macroeconomic factors.
Since April, Bitcoin has approached its all-time high, Ethereum has impressed skeptics, and several altcoins have performed well. Yet, from an innovation standpoint, the crypto space hasn’t seen any groundbreaking developments lately—or at least, none that are obvious. Therefore, the recent rally appears to be driven more by improving macro conditions, including:
- On April 9, former President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of most new tariffs.
- In early May, the U.S. and U.K. reached a new trade agreement, with more deals promised soon.
- On May 12, the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff truce.
By the time these headlines reach the public, institutional capital has often already priced them in. Capital dislikes uncertainty, so regardless of how you feel about it, crypto markets are increasingly influenced by macro trends.
When improving macro conditions combine with positive fundamental developments, the case for higher prices grows stronger. Take Ethereum’s rally this month: besides macro improvements, it also benefited from the Pectra upgrade (May 7), expectations around spot ETF staking approval (BlackRock and the SEC discussed ETH staking in early May), and significant exchange outflows (which often signal accumulation), as shown below.
Note: The chart above is a heatmap of altcoin outflows from Binance. Red indicates high outflows; currently, ETH, ENJ, SLP, and FET are among the top tokens being withdrawn.
While macro conditions have improved in some areas, challenges remain:
- The Russia-Ukraine conflict is still undergoing negotiations.
- Skirmishes between India and Pakistan could escalate.
- The Fed’s rate-cutting timeline remains uncertain.
- The risk of a U.S. recession remains elevated.
Moreover, retail sentiment in crypto doesn’t yet mirror the euphoria of previous bull markets. Although Trump’s memecoin (TRUMP) launch earlier this year sparked some excitement, it hasn’t reached the frenzy levels of past cycles.
In short: the current rally is encouraging, but it seems heavily dependent on temporary macro improvements and institutional capital flows. While the market is in better shape than in February or March, we must stay alert to shifting macro conditions and potential black swan events.
The key question is: how long can the bullish momentum last under current conditions? Will this bull run really continue until year-end?
If your investment horizon is 5–10 years, and you believe Bitcoin will eventually reach $200,000, $300,000, or even $500,000, then all you need is patience. You can continue accumulating Bitcoin gradually without worrying about short-term volatility. Many predict Bitcoin could fall to $50,000—or even $30,000—in the next bear market. But the real question is: will you have the courage and the capital to buy when that happens?
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Open Interest (OI) and why is it important?
Open Interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts (like futures or options) that have not been settled. It helps gauge market sentiment and potential price direction. High OI often indicates strong investor interest, but it can also signal elevated leverage and volatility risk.
How do macro factors influence Bitcoin’s price?
Bitcoin is increasingly sensitive to global macroeconomic events, such as interest rate changes, geopolitical tensions, and trade policies. These factors affect investor risk appetite and capital flows into alternative assets like cryptocurrencies.
What is a good strategy for taking profits in a bull market?
A common approach is to sell gradually at predetermined price targets (e.g., 10%, 25%, or 50% profit-taking intervals). This helps lock in gains while allowing remaining holdings to participate in further upside. Always align profit-taking with your personal financial goals and risk tolerance.
Should I worry about short-term price corrections?
If you’re a long-term investor, short-term volatility is normal. Focus on the underlying technology and adoption trends rather than daily price moves. For tactical traders, corrections can offer entry opportunities.
What are the signs of a market top?
Euphoric sentiment, extreme leverage, and high valuation multiples often precede market tops. Other indicators include declining exchange reserves, rising stablecoin supply, and divergences between price and key on-chain metrics.
How can I stay updated without getting overwhelmed?
Follow a few reliable sources rather than trying to absorb all information. Use tools like dashboards or alerts for key metrics. And remember: not every market move requires a reaction. Sometimes, the best action is inaction.
For those looking to dive deeper into data-driven strategies, you might find it helpful to 👉 explore real-time market analytics tools that track these indicators and more. Staying informed doesn’t have to be complicated—focus on a few key signals that align with your investment style.
In the end, whether Bitcoin reaches $150,000 this year or not, the key is to have a plan you can stick with through market cycles. Manage risk, stay disciplined, and avoid making decisions based solely on emotion or short-term noise. The crypto market rewards patience and perspective.