This week, all eyes are on Bitcoin as it approaches a crucial psychological barrier: the $108,000 mark. Prediction platform Myriad has posed a critical question to traders—can Bitcoin not only reach but also close above this key level by July 4th?
As of yesterday, when Bitcoin hovered around $107,640, the task seemed straightforward—a mere 0.33% gain of $360 stood between the current price and the target. At that point, sentiment on Myriad was nearly balanced, with bears holding a slight edge at 50.8%.
But the situation has shifted dramatically. Bitcoin has since retreated to around $106,000, a level that itself demands attention this month. The odds on Myriad have flipped, and now 69% of predictors believe Bitcoin will fail to close above $108,000 by the deadline.
So what does the technical landscape really suggest?
What the Charts Are Signaling
When Bitcoin lingers below a major psychological barrier like $108,000, the real question isn't whether the price can touch it, but whether it can close above it—and hold. These are two very different challenges.
A look at the 4-hour chart reveals that out of the last 30 trading sessions since June 25, Bitcoin closed above $108,000 only three times. Even more telling: since June 9, it has not once achieved a daily close above that level. Historically, Bitcoin has only closed above $108,000 on eight occasions.
For short-term traders, the 4-hour timeframe offers critical insights:
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is facing a classic “so near yet so far” scenario. The 4-hour chart shows repeated attempts to break above the $107,500–$108,000 range, each met with selling pressure. These failed breakouts are marked by long upper wicks, indicating that buyers are consistently overwhelmed by sellers at this resistance zone.
The Average Directional Index (ADX), a key measure of trend strength, is currently reading 17—well below the threshold of 25 needed to confirm a strong trend. This suggests the market is in a directionless, choppy phase, which is particularly problematic when trying to overcome a major resistance level.
Low ADX environments often lead to range-bound movement between support and resistance, rather than decisive breakouts. Since June 25, Bitcoin has been oscillating within the $107,000–$108,000 band, occasionally dipping below but consistently returning to this horizontal channel.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is now flashing signs of building bearish momentum, suggesting that shorter timeframes are favoring a downward move. This runs directly counter to the bullish energy required for a sustained breakout above $108K.
Still, not all hope is lost. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart still shows the 50-period EMA above the 200-period EMA—a bullish structure known as a “golden cross.” This indicates that despite short-term weakness, the broader trend remains upward.
That said, the price has slipped below the 50-period EMA, reflecting near-term bearish pressure.
Another useful indicator is the Volume Profile Visible Range, which highlights price levels where the most trading activity has occurred. Bitcoin is currently trading above the Point of Control (POC), which is usually a bullish sign. But because the price is also near strong resistance and lacking momentum, a pullback—or “mean reversion”—becomes more likely.
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The Weekend Liquidity Factor
One often overlooked element in this setup is timing: the July 4th deadline falls on a Friday, with the cutoff set at 23:59 UTC—which for most global markets is already early Saturday.
Weekend trading in cryptocurrencies is characterized by lower participation from institutional traders, thinner liquidity, wider bid-ask spreads, and generally reduced volume. While crypto markets never close, the “weekend crowd” is typically composed of retail traders and dedicated enthusiasts.
This environment makes sustained breakouts above major resistance levels more difficult. Simply put, there often isn’t enough buying power to absorb the selling pressure.
Conclusion: Easy to Touch, Hard to Hold
Based purely on the charts, the probability that Bitcoin will at least touch $108,000 before the deadline remains reasonably high—it requires less than a 2% move. But closing above it? The odds appear slim, and here’s why:
- Historical Rejection: The chart shows at least four to five recent attempts to break above this zone, all of which failed.
- Momentum Divergence: While price is near highs, momentum indicators like the ADX and RSI show weakening force.
- Time Decay: With the deadline approaching and momentum fading, each hour without a breakout lowers the probability of success.
- Volume Requirement: Breaking and holding a new high requires sustained volume—the weak ADX suggests that strength is lacking.
- Weekend Liquidity Drain: The cutoff coincides with a typical withdrawal of institutional liquidity.
Of course, this is the cryptocurrency market, where anything can happen. When a target is only 0.33% away, even a single large order, a geopolitical headline, a “whale” moving funds, or a shift in social sentiment can change everything. While the charts suggest the resistance may hold, at such close range, technical analysis alone may fall short.
Key levels to watch:
- Immediate Resistance: $108,000
- Key Support: $105,000 (psychological level)
- Next Resistance if Broken: $110,000
For participants in prediction markets, this technical setup favors a binary outcome leaning toward failure—similar to opening an over-leveraged long position. But with the deadline so close, external catalysts could easily tip the scales.
Traders are advised to watch for early signs of a sustained breakout, such as rising volume or an ADX reading above 20, while staying alert to breaking news that might temporarily override technicals.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the significance of the $108,000 level for Bitcoin?
This price level acts as a major psychological and technical resistance barrier. Multiple previous attempts to break above it have failed, making it a key focus for traders and a test of bullish momentum.
How does weekend trading affect Bitcoin’s price action?
Weekend trading typically has lower liquidity and participation from institutional investors. This can lead to increased volatility or false breakouts, making it harder for Bitcoin to sustain moves above critical resistance.
What is the ADX indicator and why is it important?
The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures trend strength. A reading below 25 suggests a weak or ranging market. Currently, the low ADX implies Bitcoin lacks the momentum needed for a decisive breakout.
Can Bitcoin still reach $108,000 by the deadline?
Yes, it’s still possible given the small distance remaining. However, closing above that level and holding it requires sustained buying pressure, which currently appears lacking.
What should traders watch if Bitcoin breaks above $108,000?
A confirmed close above $108,000 with increasing volume could signal a push toward the next resistance near $110,000. Traders should also monitor momentum indicators for confirmation.
What happens if Bitcoin gets rejected at $108,000?
A rejection could lead to a short-term pullback toward support levels, such as $105,000. This would align with the current bearish momentum signals on lower timeframes.