Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to regain momentum as gold captures renewed market attention with a nearly 5% weekly gain. Amid evolving macroeconomic conditions, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is under intense scrutiny.
Trading analysts suggest that despite the overall recovery trend in Bitcoin’s price, short-term performance may remain subdued.
Market Overview: Gold Outshines Bitcoin
As Wall Street opened on May 6, Bitcoin approached its monthly low, reflecting a cryptocurrency market that lacks clear direction. In contrast, gold demonstrated significant strength.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that BTC’s momentum stalled near the $95,000 mark, failing to break through before the latest daily close. The BTC/USD pair is gradually testing the key annual open support level around $93,500, as the market enters a wait-and-see phase.
Meanwhile, gold continues to outperform. At the time of writing, XAU/USD had gained 1.5% for the day and 4.4% for the week.
Analyzing Market Direction and Volatility
"Crypto implied volatility remains suppressed, with front-end skew gradually normalizing, and spot markets broadly lacking clear direction," noted trading firm QCP Capital in its latest market update shared with Telegram channel subscribers.
QCP highlighted multiple macro fluctuations, including continued US dollar weakness and strong rallies in emerging market currencies—particularly those in the Taiwan region—alongside gold.
"At the same time, FX turbulence coincided with a notable nearly 3% rally in gold on Monday, as traders leaned into the weak dollar narrative and priced in geopolitical risk premiums, including potential US trade diplomacy," the report added.
Given that Bitcoin has not yet followed this trend, QCP anticipates an "increasingly binary" next phase. One possibility is that BTC may "decouple from gold’s safe-haven demand and re-correlate with broader risk assets."
The “Gold First, Then Bitcoin” Pattern
Market analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter maintains that the "gold first, then Bitcoin" pattern is likely to persist.
"In April, Bitcoin began tracking gold’s rally, marking the first signs of strengthened correlation in months. Between April 7 and 21, gold rose 15%, accompanied by a 12% gain in Bitcoin," the firm stated in a May 5 analysis on X.
"The trend toward decentralized and inflation-resistant assets remains strong. This is a trend worth monitoring."
Technical Analysis: MACD Signals Cause for Pause
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin traders indicate that BTC/USD may be pausing within a broader recovery phase.
Evidence for this view comes from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which measures trend strength and shows conflicting signals across different timeframes.
Popular trader Dave The Wave highlighted a bullish signal on the weekly MACD, while the daily chart confirmed a bearish crossover below the zero line.
"BTC is consolidating between last week’s high and low, awaiting tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell’s speech. Meanwhile, the daily MACD is forming a bearish crossover, suggesting weakening momentum," summarized another trader, Titan of Crypto.
His post referred to key macroeconomic events this week, including the Federal Reserve’s rate decision meeting on May 7.
Key Support Levels and Downside Targets
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource platform Material Indicators, previously warned investors that Bitcoin’s annual open price might not hold as support.
"Simply put, I’ll be surprised if the annual open holds," he told followers on X.
"Although I’m prepared for a possible pullback to the $88,000–$90,000 range, I believe this week’s target could be the 21-day simple moving average near $91,600."
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is gold outperforming Bitcoin recently?
Gold has benefited from a weakening US dollar and increased geopolitical risk premiums, driving safe-haven demand. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has experienced suppressed volatility and a lack of clear directional momentum.
What is the correlation between Bitcoin and gold?
Bitcoin and gold have shown periods of positive correlation, especially during times of macroeconomic uncertainty. Recently, gold’s rally preceded a similar move in Bitcoin, suggesting that investors may be treating both as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation.
What are key technical levels for Bitcoin?
Critical support levels include the annual open near $93,500 and the 21-day simple moving average around $91,600. A break below these could see Bitcoin test the $88,000–$90,000 range.
How do macroeconomic events affect Bitcoin?
Events like FOMC meetings, interest rate decisions, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials can significantly impact market sentiment and liquidity, influencing Bitcoin’s short-term price movements.
What is the MACD indicator signaling for Bitcoin?
The MACD shows conflicting signals: a bullish crossover on the weekly chart suggests longer-term strength, while a bearish crossover on the daily chart indicates near-term momentum loss.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.